Photo: Moses demonstrating multi touch.

It is always fascinating watching Apple present a new product.  It’s not Apple that I watch, it’s everyone else.  Bloggers goes nuts.  Stock analysts approach it with typical wry skepticism.  And news outlets tap into the prognostications.  Bloggers and followers almost always seem underwhelmed when a new product comes out.  Maybe because bloggers tend to obsess about the new product ad nauseum.  The Apple iPad met with the same backlash.  Regardless, here are my reasons why the iPad will be a success.

#1. The Middle Market – The iPad does not replace the netbook.  The iPad does not replace the laptop.  The iPad does not replace smartphones.  As Jobs said, the iPad works the middle market.  In some ways, I think this market exists in theory.  Yes, it’s being tapped somewhat, but I think iPad will eventually crush it.  It’s going to be very useful for people and very lucrative to Apple.  Oh yeah, the pricing will work.

#2. Performance – The one thing we are hearing over and over is how fast the iPad is.  That will be super appealing to users.  If I can have a portable device that flies….how do I get one?  People will pay for a device that does things well and performs fast, now.

#3. User Experience – C’mon, this is Apple afterall.  The iPad user experience is great and will continue to improve.  This goes from the hardware right to the OS and apps.  This is the type of electronics that people will be showing off to friends and family.  And people will be drawn in because it works well, is intuitive, performs quickly, and cuts the fat.

#4. Portability – The stand allows for quick docking and undocking.  But, more than anything, people will love to carry this thing around.  They will love to grab it and take it to the couch to use.  They will love sit in bed and read a book with it.  They will love to take it to meetings to project a presentation.  We shall see if the 10 hour battery life holds weight.  If it does, it will only bolster this claim.  Almost forgot, wireless and 3G.

#5 Apps and Media – Apple is slowly becoming the purveyor of media.  Trust me, long term that holds some serious weight.  Did you see how newspapers and book companies want to snuggle up to Apple?  Sort of reminds me of music companies and movie houses.  Hmmmm, me thinks Apple is strategic.  Oh, and the apps will get better and more addictive.

I could have waxed on about tons of other things, but these are the things that stick in my mind.  People are asking, “But what is the use case for this device?”  My best answer is wait and see.  Trust me, it’s coming.

But that’s not why I’m writing.  I’m actually writing about something very interesting going on in the agricultural industry.  What if intellectual property extends to actual seeds?

The problem with technology is that we have a hard time seeing what will happen beyond our intended purpose for the technology we are employing.  Yep, technology always brings with it a host of unintended consequences.  The other problem with technology is that it can be used to wield enormous power and reinforce that power.  We have seen this in the media space.  That power can be used to propogate and inforce information ad nauseum.  Just look at marketers.  And technology can be used to centralize power, resources, etc.  The problem with the internet is that it is decentralized.  It is node based.  As soon as we brought that model online, the world changed.  And now, centralized power brokers are having a heck of a time protecting their turf against it.  Good luck.

Folks in DRM factions are fighting for their rights of ownership.  And I don’t blame them.  Big media companies are fighting for their rights of profit and intellectual owernship.  The problem is that we live in a new, decentralized, digital world.  The rules have completely changed.  It’s almost as if 1700′s England is talking to 20th century America.  It’s that radical.  So, if you think media rights and ownership are problematic, wait until you get to genetically engineered seeds.

Whether you know it or not, the likes of Monsanto and Syngenta have quietly been genetically modifying our food sources.  Now, these modifications are used to resist pesticides, increase growth, etc.  They are meant to help grow a crop quicker, faster, and give more yield.  Now, remember the point above – technology always has side effects.  Always.  One such side effect with genetically altered plants is that they can create very resistent weed like plant offshoots.  The pollen can also kill off insects that use it.  Lots and lots of effects when you start messing with foundational processes that we don’t fully understand.

Anyway, another such issue with these modifications is that they continue to gain widespread acceptance among farmers who are pushed to the ends of their margins.  In effect, agribusiness is killing farmers.  It is driving them to consolidate into massive mega farms.  They overproduce, produce diminishing quality returns on their crops, and make less money.  And so the cycle keeps pushing forward.  Grow big or go broke.  Well, one way to beat the margins is by getting massive yield.  And that is where genetically altered seed, pesticides, and the like come in.

Something that seed providers have already made is something aptly named the “Terminator.”  A terminator is a seed that will only produce one crop.  Yep, take those seeds from your crop and replant and they will not germinate.  Think about that for a minute.  Did you think your time terminating video of The Matrix was a raw deal?  Did you think it was lame when you were not able to transfer a legal copy of your music to another device?  This goes way beyond that.

Centralization of food supplies is bad.  Food supplies created only for increasing yields and shareholder interests is bad.  But creating terminating seeds is outright dangerous.  That goes not only for the power that could be wielded by them, but also because of potential wild pollution.  Think about if those alterations were somehow to get into the wild.  The results could be catastrophic.

Question: what happens when seeds become intellectual property?

PS: For a good legal treatment of the issues, take a look at The Northwestern Journal of Technology and Intellectual Property’s discussion on IP (intellectual property) and seeds.

The world – it is a’changing.  This is evident everywhere (yes, besides Apple unveils!).  Heck, just look on Wall Street for that matter.  One of the more interesting, and disconcerting, changes lies in the belly of the military machine.

The military has long been trying to figure out unmanned combat.  The reasons for this can seem innocuous at first glance.  But once we stop and think about the possible current and future repurcussions, it’s very unnerving.

Unmanned combat is a very disassociative type of militarism.  It completely disconnects the combatant with the “target.”  Now, current warfare has this to some degree, but there are differences.  The first being that folks that drive these drones, aerial or terrestrial, can be in remote locations far away from actual combat.  This serves to disconnect one from the actual events.  [Modern long range missile warfare has this same type of dissociation to some degree]  Imagine the difference between using a bayonet and firing a missile from an unmanned vehicle.  That’s the type of intrinsic difference we are talking about here.  It’s the same type of force that drives anonymous posters on the internet to pour out their hearts.  But the result is not relationship, but disconnection.  It’s an odd irony.  Participation without relationship or context.  But I digress.

These types of drones are becoming immensely important and productive for the military.  The human damage for the pilot is, well, zero.  And these unmanned vehicles can quietly and stealthily go into places that manned ones can’t.  Also, the Air Force has long said that the real bottleneck in modern aerial warfare is the pilot.  S/he is constrained by the amount of G’s they can pull in the cockpit.  Remove the pilot and you can suddenly fly much faster.  That speed equals advantage.  Once you pull the human out of the machine, you can make a giant leap forward in capability and delivery.  The military knows this.

Now, on first glance these changes seem very advantageous.  They reduce life loss and enable superior military advantages.  One of the biggest advantages seems to involve the gaming industry.  I am not the first to make this association.  But flight simulators are incredibly advanced these days.  Add to that, the host of peripherals and controllers that you can add – and you almost have a functional cockpit.  Numerous military trainers have noted how younger people seem to just fit into unmanned piloting.  Is it any wonder?  They have been prepped for this type of dissociative warfare.  Heck, I was trying to do an offline co-op game a while ago and had a hard time finding any.  That’s because people don’t game in the same room anymore.  They game together online.  Again, dissociation.  I am not railing on the gaming niche, but rather trying to make a point that today’s gaming environments seem uniquely suited in raising up unmanned pilots.

Here’s a 60 minutes video on UAVs:

But this is all a step in a progression.  If you haven’t looked at Honda’s robotics division, you should.  The steps they are making are pretty amazing.  In fact, a friend recently told me about a robotics warehouse that his company operates.  Do manufacturing, etc. in the dark 24/7.  They just input raw materials and output product.  Occasionally, they have to do maintenance when an alert goes off.  It runs all lights out.  It all points to robotic warfare.  Sure, the aim is human casualty.  But robotic elements will be steadily increased.  How would having a standing army of robots change the way governments handle warfare?  For starters, it would make me nervous that the powers that be wouldn’t need a standing army of people.  That transition would have to be handled with the utmost care.  But for now, I guess we can enjoy our flight simulators.

It is amazing to note that hurricane force winds were observed in Louisville and other places around the tri-state.  Hurricane Ike was felt in Cincinnati!  Okay, so it was only a depression as it came anywhere near us, but it was impressive anyway.  Once the clean up started and damage was assessed an amazing thing started to happen.  People came outside.  It was like a scene from War of the Worlds.  Suddenly, people were helping each other clear out debris and get siding back.

As the day turned into night, an eerie scene emerged.  The stillness of the night was incredible.  It was dark, quiet, and serene.  It really did remind me of alien invasion scenes.  Or maybe after a tremendous catastrophe.  As I walked around the neighborhood, an even more stark scene came to forefront.  People were outside again.  They were hanging out with neighbors.  They were grilling out together.  They were sharing beer, wine, food, and fires.  I discovered that there were a lot more teenagers in my neighborhood than I could have imagined.

All in all, our community came alive during this outage.  People were outside, away from their TVs and computers.  Kids were everywhere.  People shared and helped one another out.  It was simply amazing.  As the full moon shone last night, my wife and I marveled at the result.  Sure, there were commercial losses, food losses, property losses, frustrations, etc.  But the net result for my community was positive in my mind.  And I am happy to note that only one small story of looting has been reported in Cincinnati.  That makes me proud of my city.  But, as soon as the power came back on, people stayed inside again.  Maybe we should have a day long power outage more often?

People who had been tied to their PDA’s found themselves free.  Frenetic lives came to a crashing halt.  Conveniences that were taken for granted were suddenly appreciated.  In fact, my son cheered when he could simply turn the light on to go to bathroom.  And occassions like this give us a reason to ask neighbors for things.  Isn’t it interesting that we all amass very similar items?  Ah, capitalism and individualism.  But the most telling thing to me has been the comments about disconnection with technology.  The effect has been similar to the technology fast that I recommended earlier this year.  The overall word would be calming.  Disconnecting from those things is very calming.  Hmmm.  More community, sharing, tranquility, peace – amidst frustration and chaos.  I find that very interesting.

Even nano robots need a place to unwind and read the newspaper!  Yes, that really is a nano toilet.  All kidding aside, nano technology is still in its infancy, but good progress is being made.  Really, it’s just a matter of time before we can start building things on the nano scale – in mass.  Once that happens in a scalable, cheap, and commercial way, there will be no telling what we can screw up!  Jokes aside, there will be many innovations that come online, but there is always the rule of unintended consequences for technology.  It’s hard for people to understand just how revolutionary such nano factories can be, so let’s go through it.

So, why in the world should you care about nano factories or molecular manufacturing, as it is also called?  The answer is simple.  It will revolutionize this world.  Right now, many product already incorporate nano materials.  But that’s not we are talking about when we speak of nano factories.  No, these factories will be able to build materials with incredible precision (can you say, atomic precision?) because they will build the materials from the ground up – from molecular materials.   This video will give you a good idea of how revolutionary this process will be:

Now, imagine a factory whose job it is to manufacture other factories.  That would allow an incredible scaling for the manufacturing process.  Of course, there are many hurdles to get over before this type of factory could be developed, but the building blocks are there.  Some things that come to mind are error, repairs, quality assurance, etc.  But I do believe it’s coming.  Now, let’s consider some possible ramifications from such a technological leap.

The development of such a device will be of utmost national security interests.  My guess is that it will become a highly coveted and funded project for many nations.  They will intrinsically see the highly creative and destructive nature of such an invention.  Just consider the impact of developing something that can not only replicate itself, but also create highly destructive (and small) weapons.  This could range from nano bots that could silently assassinate their intended targets to large scale weapons that could cause incredible devastation.  Nano espionage and reconnaissance will assuredly take place.  Despite the difficulties of bringing such things to reality, I do believe it will come to pass.  And the nation that does first will be able to make some rules.

The entire manufacturing process will be upended.  And the rules around labor will also be upended.  And how in the world do you work on such machines?  I’m assuming you have nano bots to fix things.  But what impact that would have on typical worker roles is pretty uncertain.  I’m sure it will change things radically.  The mantra will be what it has always been – you have to change as the world changes.  But what about pricing or even business?  What happens when consumers are able to have their own nano factory?  Well, that would completely change the rules.  And I have no idea what that would mean.

This really shouldn’t surprise us that something like this can take place.  Richard Feynman, Nobel Prize winner in physics, postulated such things in the 50′s:

“I want to build a billion tiny factories, models of each other, which are manufacturing simultaneously. . .The principles of physics, as far as I can see, do not speak against the possibility of maneuvering things atom by atom. It is not an attempt to violate any laws; it is something, in principle, that can be done; but in practice, it has not been done because we are too big.”

The possibilities in medicine are staggering.  Nano bots could help surgeons do surgery from the inside out with minimal invasion.  Nano materials could be used to heal all sorts of ailments.  Hernias could be mended, organs could be fixed, cancer could be targeted.  The list goes on and on, but you get the point.

I’m sure that this will be a reality at some point.  It will be a matter of taking care of the problems of creating such a small factory.  When that happens, this world will have changed forever.

Apparently they realized, with the help of the adamant NetFlix community, that this would be a friggin’ stupid move.

The setup in place right now strikes me as extremely convenient for families, social Netflix browsing, and each person’s individual movie reviews and recommendations. So, when they announced that the service would be cancelled on August 30th, 2008, I heard about it nearly everywhere. Now, with Netflix in possession of over 6.8 million users at the end of 2007 and 8.6 million users at the end of this month (see Netflix Snapshot numbers), alienating even a tenth of that would result in a lot of disappointed people. In contrast, Blockbuster‘s competing video rental service had only 2.8 million paying customers (3.0 million total subscribers), so Netflix is clearly the top dog right now.

However, in response to the customer outcry (it’s impossible to get a direct number, but the Netflix Community Blog post announcing the profile terminations had well over 1000 comments…) Netflix announced yesterday that it was keeping user profiles with this post on the Netflix Community Blog. Two things: It’s refreshing that a company listened to the overwhelming consumer voice and rescinded what would have been an overall fiscally-bad decision, and I’m left wondering how this idea ever made it out of the development labs!

To make a long story short, if you have a Netflix subscription:

1) If you haven’t heard of Profiles, check them out. After this fiasco, they will be around for a while;
2) Stop consolidating your information, if you have utilized Profiles and wished to keep your data around;
and 3) Let Netflix know this is the right decision (at least from what I’ve seen).

Pictures courtesty of: Netflix;

I love technology, gadgets, tinkering, etc.  Don’t get me wrong, I really do.  But I tend to deviate with techno-addicts in some areas.  The problem with a lot of technology is that it tends to end up driving you, not the other way around.

When you spend more time trying to figure out your technology and not using it, you know it’s time to reassess what you’re doing.  There’s no replacement for good, old fashioned thinking!

Also, over time we tend to layer our technology.  What I mean is that legacy systems hang around and we tend to build new onto old.  And the problem isn’t just interfacing those old things, it’s that the systems themselves get so confusing.  Soon, you need some kind of software to track your software!  Can you spell “trouble?”

I also tend to be a minimalist.  Sure, I love having my projects and such.  But I also like to regularly purge my life.  Let me give you a simple example.  I recently killed my cell phone.  Gasp!  I didn’t use it enough and hence I killed it.  The reaction of friends was hilarious.  You would have thought I put down my eldest child!  Time will tell if that was a bad decision.  But there was a time when I didn’t have a cell phone.  And, honestly, I’m not missing it.  This is a small example.  But how is technology cluttering your life?  There is a lot to be said of silence and space – especially in our frenetic culture.

I have a simple experiment for you.  It’s called a technology fast.  Do this for one week.  It’s best during a week of vacation – especially if you are at home.  Turn off all TV’s, radios, computers, cell phones, pagers, PDAs, etc.  You don’t have to be super rigid about it.  Just stop the technology for a while.  Do something with your hands.  Build something or read.  Go for walks outside.  Spend lots of time with people.  Then, come back here and comment on the results or post it on your blog.  I’m telling you – you will have lots to write about!  If you can’t do it for a week, try a shorter time frame.  Then, reassess about how technology fits into your life.  Reflect on it.  And act.

Yes, gone are the days of collect calls to your mother (or brother) from “A Mr. ‘HEY-I-NEED-A-PICKUP!‘ Press 1 to accept this call.” Those looking for a piece of nostalgia, if you are, say, an Applebee’s or T.G.I. Friday’s or just an avid collector of phone memorabilia, you would be well-advised to acquire one before they are all scrapped. No longer will Clark Kent find a private abode to transform into superman, and Colin Farrell doesn’t have to worry about being shot in them, either. Pay-phones, as invisible as they seem, have been a quaint, little piece of culture here in America, and its unfortunate to see them go.

The writing was on the wall, however. Since 1998, AT&T has reduced the number of pay-phones from 2.6 million to just over 1 million, and revenues from the service have been steadily dropping, even after the reduction. In comparison to the amount of phones, AT&T serves almost 66 million cell phone subscribers. Unfortunately, this also has the potential to cause problems for those without wireless access; especially if a crisis arises. As great as digital systems are, the reliability of analog is without question, and unless digital reliability goes up, someone somewhere will find themselves in a predicament at some time. Of course, with all of this, I’m surprised it didn’t happen sooner.

Picture courtesy of: AT&T, Wikipedia;

More about the camp: Applications to the camp will be accepted from those aged 14 to 22, once they have undergone a rigorous psychological test to determine their eligibility. The camp will be focusing on treating some of the symptoms of the Web: depression, fear, social reclusion, panic, self-esteem issues, and agitation. Coupled with the new camp, which seems to be acting as a test run, the Chinese government has also banned new Internet cafe’s from popping up and placed restrictions on some games offered in China. It’s gotten so bad, Shanghai’s education commissionOf course, at PaulTech, we never run out of statistics and specifications. Ever. So, here’s some sobering statistics about the Chinese:

• 1) China has 20 million Internet users under the age of 18. Of that 20 million, 13% or 2.6 million, are classified as “addicts”. No idea what standard the Chinese use to classify an “addict”, but nonetheless, it’s a bunch…
• 2) There are also around 113,000 Internet cafes and bars in mainland China.

———
It definitely sounds like a problem. While I don’t believe the United States has levels as high as that, I wouldn’t be surprised if I ever came across a similar camp with a similar idea stateside. Here’s to hoping it never gets bad enough that your Secretary of Education forms volunteer youth brigades to patrol the streets to try and stop youth from entering Internet cafes…

Picture courtesy of: the State Department;

“Give your computer the bird. Computers are frustrating. Creating documents, finding files, sharing information— why do everyday things still seem so tedious and counterintuitive? We will send you an e-mail when Parakey is available. We hope that Parakey will make your life easier.“

So what the heck does that mean?!

Well, it seems Blake Ross’ own statement sums it up best:

“Parakey is a Web operating system that can do everything an OS can do.”

Actually, I think Blake means GUI, but even still, if that is what I think it is, we’ve got a big deal on our hands, and Facebook has a potential ace-in-the-hole. Remember ThinkFree Office? The office client you could take anywhere because it is based online? Well, it’s not only an office client, but it involves rudimentary file sharing and some equivalent of social document sharing; in any case, it’s more than capable, except is suffers from a lack of exposure. Well, Parakey could be much, much more than ThinkFree’s software, if only because it encompasses more. Your iTunes library, your documents, your bookmarks, your chat client, all these things could potentially existing on this new GUI. Not to mention, with 30 million users, it will get the exposure to young, tech-inclined youth, college students looking to ease file transfers, and other assorted groups.

It’s also no secret that Google, while having acquired multiple companies and having talent spread over everything from video, searching, maps, and email, is still a one-trick pony. Google’s attempt at a social networking website, Orkut, doesn’t register on Nielsen’s ratings for the top social networking sites. Froogle, a price-comparison search, works, but is no where near as robust as things like Shopping.com or Amazon.com price comparisons. AdSense, the little box that shows up with advertising links relevant to page content (you’ll see one somewhere here in this post), has been working well, but they’re behind the trend: they have only recently thought to acquire an outside ad agency, leading online agency DoubleClick, for $3.1 billion. In comparison, if the merger with Parakey goes well, Facebook could court a competetive ad agency to set down a concrete scheme for revenue growth. With 30 million users and 4 million more being added each month, that’s a pretty sizable foundation for ad revenue. One more thought: Facebook is only 3 years into it’s lifespan and already, as of this post, ranks inside the Top 10 for site traffic on Alexsa. It’s growing rather quickly.

But back to the Parakey situation; if Blake and Joe do well with Parakey, we could start to see erosion from sites like Flickr and del.icio.us to the Parakey GUI. It’s highly likely most of the users utilizing sites like Flickr and del.icio.us and Blogger have a Facebook or some semblance of interest in acquiring one. With a robust GUI that could replace multiple website as an “all-in-one” package, the transition from a similar site to Facebook could be expedited. That scenario really depends on how inclusive Parakey ends up being, as I must remind myself, nothing regarding this platform is set in stone yet.

With or without a smashing success on the part of Parakey, I’d say it’s safe to assume Facebook isn’t content with staying an exclusively social networking site; sure, it’ll be their core operation, but branching out was bound to take place with a company who seems to be unable to quit growing. It’s the combination of growth, desire to branch out, and youth the company still has that seems to make Facebook a growingly dominant power on the Internet. If I were the big web conglomerates of today, I’d watch my back. They may end up finding a spunky startup company from a college student has revolutionized the Internet of tomorrow.

Pictures courtesy of: Parakey, Facebook, Google;